The Lindy effect
For non-perishable things, the longer something has been around, the longer it'll keep being around.
- For non-perishable things, the longer something has been around, the longer it'll keep being around.
- Operating: When choosing a tech stack, the boring options (Postgres, Linux, HTTPS, SQL) are more likely to be around in 20 years than the trendy options.
- Investing: Coca-Cola has been a brand for 140 years.
- Everyday life: Reading books that have been in print 50+ years is usually a better use of time than reading this month's bestseller.
Nassim Taleb popularised the name. The principle: for ideas, technologies, institutions, books, and other non-perishable things, expected future lifespan is roughly equal to current age.
A book that's been in print for 100 years will probably be in print for 100 more. A book that came out last week has roughly an 80% chance of being forgotten within 5 years. The Bible, Shakespeare, and Euclid's Elements pass the Lindy test cleanly. Last year's bestseller probably doesn't.
The name comes from Lindy's Deli in NYC, where Broadway performers used to gather and discuss which shows would last. Their rough rule: a play that's been running for 100 days will probably run for 100 more.
Why does this work? Things that have survived many tests of relevance have demonstrated value. Things that are new haven't been tested. Most new things fail. Time is a brutal filter, and surviving it is evidence of resilience.
The Lindy frame applies to:
- Books and ideas
- Religions and traditions
- Business models (the corner shop has outlasted hundreds of "new retail" innovations)
- Management practices (writing things down, paying people on time, meeting in person)
- Marketing channels (word of mouth has outlasted every "new" channel)
- Cooking methods (people will still salt and roast meat in 500 years)
But Lindy has clear limits.
It only applies to non-perishable things. A 100-year-old car doesn't have 100 more years in it; it's wearing out. Lindy doesn't apply.
It doesn't predict that nothing new will last. Some new things become Lindy. The web has been around 30 years and is probably here for 30 more. AI models? Maybe. Time will tell.
And being Lindy doesn't mean being right. Plenty of long-lived ideas are bad (astrology, certain forms of bias). Lindy tells you about staying power, not about truth.
For operators, the practical implication is conservative. When picking what to bet on for the long term (a tech stack, a business practice, a marketing channel), the boring Lindy options are usually safer than the trendy new ones. Reserve your bets on the new for places where being wrong is cheap. For mission-critical stuff, lean Lindy.
Examples in the wild
When choosing a tech stack, the boring options (Postgres, Linux, HTTPS, SQL) are more likely to be around in 20 years than the trendy options. For mission-critical infrastructure, Lindy is the right bias.
Coca-Cola has been a brand for 140 years. Buffett's bet that it'll be a brand for another 140 is Lindy reasoning. The same bet on TikTok would be wildly speculative even if TikTok is currently bigger.
Reading books that have been in print 50+ years is usually a better use of time than reading this month's bestseller. The Lindy filter has already done your selection work for you.
The Lindy effect is one of the mental models we apply through real cases inside the Pareto MBA — a part-time program for professionals who want to think clearly about business.