The Cynefin framework
Match your approach to the domain: clear, complicated, complex, chaotic. Most failures are mismatches.
Dave Snowden's framework. Different kinds of problems require different approaches:
- Clear: best practices apply (cause and effect obvious; sense, categorise, respond)
- Complicated: expert analysis required (cause and effect knowable; sense, analyse, respond)
- Complex: experimentation required (cause and effect only knowable in retrospect; probe, sense, respond)
- Chaotic: act first to establish order (no cause and effect; act, sense, respond)
The framework matters because using the wrong approach to a domain produces predictable failure. Treating a complex problem as if it were complicated (more analysis will solve it) fails. Treating a clear problem as if it were complex (over-experimenting) wastes time.
For operators, the discipline is to identify the domain first, then apply the right approach. Most strategic failures are domain mismatches.
Examples in the wild
Most innovation problems are complex (probe-sense-respond), not complicated. Treating them with classical analysis often produces detailed plans that fail. The Cynefin frame would say: experiment.
Macro economic forecasting is complex, not complicated. Investors who treat it as complicated (more analysis, more models) repeatedly fail. Those who treat it as complex (probe, hedge, adapt) do better.
Parenting is complex, not complicated. Books that promise a method that always works for every child are mis-categorising the domain.
The Cynefin framework is one of the mental models we apply through real cases inside the Pareto MBA — a part-time program for professionals who want to think clearly about business.