Excessive self-regard tendency
We overrate ourselves, our possessions, and our conclusions. The Lake Wobegon effect.
A robust finding from psychology: most people rate themselves above average on most positive traits. Most drivers think they drive better than average. Most managers think they're in the top half of managers. The math doesn't work, but the brains all agree.
The bias has a real cost in operating decisions. Most people hire candidates who remind them of themselves (because they over-rate themselves, they over-rate the resemblance). Most managers refuse to accept feedback that they could be performing better.
The defence is structural humility: assume you're roughly average until evidence proves otherwise. Welcome harsh feedback rather than easy praise. Run your own work past people who'll be honestly critical, not friends who'll be encouraging.
Examples in the wild
Most failed acquisitions are driven by acquiring-company executives over-rating their ability to extract synergies. The synergies require operational excellence the acquirers don't actually have.
Day traders almost all believe they're above average. Most measurably aren't. The gap between perceived and actual skill is the heart of the active-investing problem.
Most arguments would shorten if both sides acknowledged they might be the one who's wrong. The bias makes that genuinely difficult.
Excessive self-regard tendency is one of the mental models we apply through real cases inside the Pareto MBA — a part-time program for professionals who want to think clearly about business.